Panathinaikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Aris Thessalonikis in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Panathinaikos 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 39% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.22 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.212 / defence 0.859 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.830 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Panathinaikos games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 47% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 23%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.35. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 20% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 47% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Panathinaikos 1.22 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.212 / def 0.859 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.830 / def 1.018 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Aris Thessalonikis xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 47% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.21) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.83x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.32
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.97
0.75
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
7%
14.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.75 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 15W 6D 10L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 15W 8D 8L from 31 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.71 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.03 scored and 0.77 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 15W 6D 10L in their last 31 games (1.65 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 15W 8D 8L in their last 31 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.20 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 33%, Aris Thessalonikis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Panathinaikos and 33% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.22 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.75 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 47% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 23%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 39%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.65 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.