Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host PAS Giannina at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while PAS Giannina have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus PAS Giannina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | PAS Giannina 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.58 xG and PAS Giannina 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.301 / defence 0.951 | PAS Giannina attack 0.795 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.291. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 45 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 12%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | PAS Giannina 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | PAS Giannina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 58% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.58 / PAS Giannina 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.301 / def 0.951 | PAS Giannina attack 0.795 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.98
PAS Giannina xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 72% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Record (7 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 5W | Draws 2 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.30) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
72%
1.40
17%
6.04
12%
8.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.56
0.98
PAS Giannina xG
1.40
72%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
8.47
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
8%
13.22
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
1%
112.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.98 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 31W 13D 8L from 52 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 9W 19D 24L across 52 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 16W 5D 4L from 25 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 2W 11D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.94 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 31W 13D 8L in their last 52 games (2.04 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 9W 19D 24L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAS Giannina away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.12 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, PAS Giannina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 48% (PAS Giannina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAS Giannina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 64% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 48% of PAS Giannina's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAS Giannina 3-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.58 xG and PAS Giannina 0.98 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.30 / defence 0.95 against PAS Giannina attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 12%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, PAS Giannina 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.