Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos meet at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panetolikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 9 meetings, with Panetolikos managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 42% versus Panetolikos 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Panetolikos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.35 xG and Panetolikos 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.092 / defence 0.748 | Panetolikos attack 0.955 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.152. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 47 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 22%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Panetolikos 4.55. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Panetolikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.35 / Panetolikos 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.092 / def 0.748 | Panetolikos attack 0.955 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Panetolikos xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Record (9 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 8W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.09) and Panetolikos's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.95x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.44
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.17
0.82
Panetolikos xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.82 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 37W 11D 5L from 53 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 24L across 53 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 20W 5D 1L from 26 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 9W 9D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.91 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 37W 11D 5L in their last 53 games (2.30 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panetolikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.50 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-1 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Panetolikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 23% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Panetolikos in 35%; Panetolikos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 38% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 23% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 2-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.35 xG and Panetolikos 0.82 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Panetolikos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.09 / defence 0.75 against Panetolikos attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 22%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panetolikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.