Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Group - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.80 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2 for Panathinaikos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 40% versus Panathinaikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Panathinaikos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 xG and Panathinaikos 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.955 / defence 0.698 | Panathinaikos attack 1.223 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 0.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | Draw 35% | Panathinaikos 27%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Panathinaikos 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 20% | Panathinaikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 5 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | Draw 35% | Panathinaikos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 / Panathinaikos 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.955 / def 0.698 | Panathinaikos attack 1.223 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Panathinaikos xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 38% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Record (9 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 4 | Panathinaikos 2W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.22x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
38%
2.62
35%
2.89
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.03
0.91
Panathinaikos xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.91 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 62 games, going 41W 14D 7L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.77 PPG from 62 outings (31W 17D 14L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 21W 8D 2L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.45 points per game from 31 outings (12W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Panathinaikos in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 14D 7L in their last 62 games (2.21 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 31W 17D 14L in their last 62 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.29 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, Panathinaikos 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 48% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 32%; Panathinaikos in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 48% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panathinaikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Championship Group - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 xG and Panathinaikos 0.91 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.95 / defence 0.70 against Panathinaikos attack 1.22 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | Draw 35% | Panathinaikos 27%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 42%, Panathinaikos 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.77. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.