Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Kifisia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kifisia — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kifisia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 25% versus Kifisia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Kifisia 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94 xG and Kifisia 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.401 / defence 0.661 | Kifisia attack 0.794 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.112. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — their λ of 2.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 4 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 83% | Draw 14% | Kifisia 3%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 | Draw 7.14 | Kifisia 33.33. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (83%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Kifisia 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 83% | Draw 14% | Kifisia 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 43% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94 / Kifisia 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.401 / def 0.661 | Kifisia attack 0.794 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Kifisia xG
43%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 0 Kifisia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 83% chance of winning, Kifisia a 3% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Kifisia (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.40x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.5%), 4-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
83%
1.20
14%
7.33
3%
31.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.5%
Home win
4 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.53
0.58
Kifisia xG
1.20
83%
Home win
7.33
14%
Draw
31.45
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
5%
18.99
Win to Nil
46%
2.15
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.58 for Kifisia, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 1D 0L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kifisia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.75 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Kifisia in 75%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Kifisia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
From 4 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, Kifisia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 25%, Kifisia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 100% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Kifisia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 75% of Kifisia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 100% of Kifisia's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Kifisia 4-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94 xG and Kifisia 0.58 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.40 / defence 0.66 against Kifisia attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 83% | Draw 14% | Kifisia 3%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Kifisia 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kifisia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus scored 4 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kifisia managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.