Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of AEK Athens FC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus AEK Athens FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.403 / defence 0.822 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.050. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | AEK Athens FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 / AEK Athens FC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.403 / def 0.822 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.920 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.79
AEK Athens FC xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 57% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.40x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (0.92x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.01
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.42
0.79
AEK Athens FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
28.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.79 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 28 games, going 21W 6D 1L for 2.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 12W 2D 0L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.57 points per game from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.54 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 6D 1L in their last 28 games (2.46 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.71 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, AEK Athens FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 50% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.79 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.40 / defence 0.82 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 18%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.