OFI 1-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 24 November 2023 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — OFI are significantly better at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis than their overall form suggests.
Volos NFC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward OFI. A 0.50 PPG lead over Volos NFC (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Volos NFC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 41% | Volos NFC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.49 xG and Volos NFC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.888 / defence 0.927 | Volos NFC attack 0.757 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.132. Data: 37 OFI games / 36 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 16%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Volos NFC 6.25. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 70% | Volos NFC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG OFI 1.49 / Volos NFC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.888 / def 0.927 | Volos NFC attack 0.757 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: OFI (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Volos NFC xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Volos NFC kick off?
OFI vs Volos NFC kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
OFI 1 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is OFI vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Volos NFC part of?
OFI vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 50% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both OFI and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
Record (1 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.89x the league average against Volos NFC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.76x) against OFI's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
50%
1.99
33%
2.99
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
OFI xG
Total xG
2.29
0.80
Volos NFC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
4%
27.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are OFI and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for OFI and 0.80 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, OFI have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 16D 15L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 11W 9D 24L from 44 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for OFI against 0.95 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (6W 9D 7L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 5W 7D 10L from 22 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.91 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 16D 15L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Volos NFC away?
OFI's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.23 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
4
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Volos NFC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when OFI 3-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Volos NFC?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Volos NFC 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (OFI) and 50% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 32%; OFI have failed to score in 36% of games; Volos NFC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 32% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Volos NFC tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Volos NFC finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.49 xG and Volos NFC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Volos NFC attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 16%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 41%, Volos NFC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.25 PPG, Volos NFC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.