OFI 2-4 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Panetolikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.70 PPG versus Panetolikos's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 53% versus Panetolikos 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 47% | Panetolikos 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.41 xG and Panetolikos 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.987 / defence 1.246 | Panetolikos attack 0.775 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.113. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 OFI games / 17 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 29%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Panetolikos 3.45. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: OFI 67% | Panetolikos 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG OFI 1.41 / Panetolikos 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.987 / def 1.246 | Panetolikos attack 0.775 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: OFI (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Panetolikos xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panetolikos kick off?
OFI vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
OFI 2 - 4 Panetolikos.
Where is OFI vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panetolikos part of?
OFI vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 45% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OFI and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.75
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OFI xG
Total xG
2.48
1.07
Panetolikos xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OFI and 1.07 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 6W 7D 4L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 9L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos in 65%.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panetolikos away?
OFI's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.22 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.11 PPG.
Have OFI or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Panetolikos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 67%, Panetolikos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (OFI) and 67% (Panetolikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Panetolikos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of OFI's games and 56% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of OFI's matches and 67% of Panetolikos's.
Do OFI and Panetolikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 2-4 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.41 xG and Panetolikos 1.07 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.41, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 45% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 29%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 47%, Panetolikos 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Panetolikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.