OFI 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OFI at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Atromitos (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for OFI, 0.90 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for OFI, 0 for Atromitos and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended OFI 1–1 Atromitos — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus Atromitos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 45% | Atromitos 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OFI surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Atromitos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.56 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.929 / defence 0.920 | Atromitos attack 0.786 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Atromitos's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from OFI's last 52 games and Atromitos's last 52.
Result probabilities: OFI 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.07 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 4.63. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG OFI 1.56 / Atromitos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.929 / def 0.920 | Atromitos attack 0.786 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: OFI (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atromitos xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 48% chance of winning, Atromitos a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.79x) against OFI's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 52 games and Atromitos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.33
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
OFI xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Atromitos xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for OFI and 0.98 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 22D 23L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.15 PPG from 60 outings (16W 21D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for OFI against 1.15 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 8W 12D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.72 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.10 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ OFI vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 22D 23L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 16W 21D 23L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.24 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OFI and Atromitos, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 4D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
7
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Atromitos have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: OFI 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Atromitos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (OFI) and 45% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 31% of games; Atromitos in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Atromitos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of OFI's games and 62% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of OFI's recent games and 45% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of OFI's recent matches and 76% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Atromitos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.56 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Atromitos attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 45%, Atromitos 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.12 PPG, Atromitos 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.