Levadiakos 0-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 24 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 0.38 PPG across 8 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.42 PPG clear of Levadiakos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 0.38). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (8 games): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 50% versus AEK Athens FC 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 38% | AEK Athens FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.81 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.861 / defence 1.073 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.298 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.125. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Levadiakos games / 34 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 17% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | AEK Athens FC 1.89. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 50% | AEK Athens FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 17% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Levadiakos 0.81 / AEK Athens FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.861 / def 1.073 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.298 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.57
AEK Athens FC xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Levadiakos 0 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 17% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.86x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.30x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 8/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
17%
5.79
29%
3.42
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.37
1.57
AEK Athens FC xG
5.79
17%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
4%
27.73
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 14.6 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.57 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.38 PPG on a 0W 3D 5L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 6W 0D 2L from 8 games, 2.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.88 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AEK Athens FC in 25%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 0D 2L in their last 8 (2.25 PPG).
Have Levadiakos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, AEK Athens FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Levadiakos) and 38% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 62%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 25% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Levadiakos's recent games and 38% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 0-2 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.81 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.57 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.78, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 17% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 53%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 38%, AEK Athens FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.