Larisa 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Larisa host Atromitos at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AEL FC Arena, Larisa have gone 0W 3D 4L this season (7 games, 0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Larisa at 0.50 PPG versus Atromitos's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Larisa have won 0, Atromitos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Larisa in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 57% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 50% | Atromitos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.31 xG and Atromitos 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.792 / defence 1.439 | Atromitos attack 0.962 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.171. Larisa's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Larisa games / 40 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 31% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 45%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Atromitos 2.22. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 71% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 31% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Larisa 1.31 / Atromitos 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.792 / def 1.439 | Atromitos attack 0.962 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Atromitos xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Atromitos kick off?
Larisa vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Atromitos?
Larisa 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Larisa vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Atromitos part of?
Larisa vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 31% chance of winning, Atromitos a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Larisa and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): Larisa 0W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Larisa and Atromitos in?
Larisa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Larisa's attack rating (0.79) and Atromitos's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Larisa's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
31%
3.22
24%
4.12
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.93
1.62
Atromitos xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
6%
16.31
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Larisa and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Larisa and 1.62 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Larisa's recent record stands at 1W 5D 8L from 14 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 8L across 14 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Larisa on 0.57 PPG, Atromitos on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 0W 3D 4L from 7 games — 0.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Larisa are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.43 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Larisa's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Larisa
2
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Atromitos?
From 4 meetings on record, Larisa have won 1, Atromitos have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Larisa 2-1 Atromitos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 71%, Atromitos 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Larisa) and 43% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Larisa have failed to score in 29% of games; Atromitos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Larisa's games and 43% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Larisa vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Larisa's recent games and 43% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Atromitos tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Larisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa and Atromitos finished level at 0-0 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.31 xG and Atromitos 1.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Larisa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.44 against Atromitos attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 31% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 45%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 50%, Atromitos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.57 PPG, Atromitos 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.