Lamia 1-3 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamia face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Volos NFC in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Volos NFC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Lamia, 0.70 for Volos NFC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Volos NFC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2025, ended Lamia 1–0 Volos NFC — a Lamia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus Volos NFC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | Volos NFC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.13 xG and Volos NFC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.787 / defence 1.109 | Volos NFC attack 0.835 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Lamia's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Lamia 38% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 32%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.62 | Draw 3.38 | Volos NFC 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 30% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 38% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Lamia 1.13 / Volos NFC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.787 / def 1.109 | Volos NFC attack 0.835 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Lamia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Volos NFC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Volos NFC kick off?
Lamia vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Lamia 1 - 3 Volos NFC.
Where is Lamia vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Volos NFC part of?
Lamia vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 38% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lamia and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Lamia vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.79) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.83x) against Lamia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.38
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Volos NFC xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Lamia and 1.01 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamia's recent record stands at 11W 14D 37L from 62 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 32L across 62 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Lamia against 0.97 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 7W 6D 18L from their last 31 home games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across their last 31 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.94 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
Lamia (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Lamia vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 11W 14D 37L in their last 62 games (0.76 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 15W 15D 32L in their last 62 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.87 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Volos NFC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 1, Volos NFC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2025: Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 48%, Volos NFC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lamia) and 45% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 42% of games; Volos NFC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lamia's recent matches and 42% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lamia's recent games and 45% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Lamia's recent matches and 68% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Lamia 1-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.13 xG and Volos NFC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Volos NFC attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 38% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 32%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, Volos NFC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.76 PPG, Volos NFC 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.