Lamia 0-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Lamia versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 6 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Super League 1 appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panthessaliko Stadio this season.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 2W 2D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 54% versus PAS Giannina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 54% | PAS Giannina 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.83 xG and PAS Giannina 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.874 / defence 1.484 | PAS Giannina attack 1.021 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.279. Data: 11 Lamia games / 11 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 15% | Draw 21% | PAS Giannina 63%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | PAS Giannina 1.59. The model has a clear lean to PAS Giannina (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 80% | PAS Giannina 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 15% | Draw 21% | PAS Giannina 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamia 0.83 / PAS Giannina 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.874 / def 1.484 | PAS Giannina attack 1.021 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.94
PAS Giannina xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Lamia 0 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Lamia vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Lamia vs PAS Giannina part of?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 15% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (1.02x) against Lamia's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
15%
6.53
21%
4.71
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.76
1.94
PAS Giannina xG
6.53
15%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
2%
45.32
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lamia and 1.94 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 2W 4D 5L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAS Giannina are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 0.91 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.36 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: PAS Giannina in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAS Giannina away?
PAS Giannina's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.40 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lamia or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lamia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamia won 1-4 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lamia
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 3, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 80%, PAS Giannina 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Lamia) and 20% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina in 60%; PAS Giannina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Lamia's recent matches and 20% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Lamia's recent games and 20% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Lamia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Lamia 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.83 xG and PAS Giannina 1.94 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. PAS Giannina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.87 / defence 1.48 against PAS Giannina attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 15% | Draw 21% | PAS Giannina 63%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 54%, PAS Giannina 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.