Lamia 1-4 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to face Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Monday 13 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
OFI have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 1.00 PPG clear of Lamia in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Lamia 1W, OFI 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 37% versus OFI 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 39% | OFI 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.83 xG and OFI 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.749 / defence 1.371 | OFI attack 1.150 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.009. Lamia's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Lamia games / 47 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 16% | Draw 32% | OFI 52%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 6.25 | Draw 3.12 | OFI 1.92. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 40% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 16% | Draw 32% | OFI 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamia 0.83 / OFI 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.749 / def 1.371 | OFI attack 1.150 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: OFI (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.59
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs OFI kick off?
Lamia vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs OFI?
Lamia 1 - 4 OFI.
Where is Lamia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs OFI part of?
Lamia vs OFI is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 16% chance of winning, OFI a 52% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 2 | OFI 1W.
What form are Lamia and OFI in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. OFI (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.75) and OFI's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.15x) against Lamia's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
16%
6.25
32%
3.11
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.42
1.59
OFI xG
6.25
16%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
3%
30.65
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lamia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lamia and 1.59 for OFI, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 8W 18D 28L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI's form line: 15W 19D 20L from 54 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.69 PPG from 26 outings (3W 9D 14L).
On the road, OFI have gone 7W 10D 9L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.61 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.06 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and OFI in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 18D 28L in their last 54 games (0.78 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 19D 20L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.69 PPG; OFI away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Lamia or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, OFI have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, OFI 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lamia) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 31%; Lamia have failed to score in 46% of games; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lamia's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and OFI tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, OFI in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Lamia 1-4 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.83 xG and OFI 1.59 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.75 / defence 1.37 against OFI attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 16% | Draw 32% | OFI 52%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 39%, OFI 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.