Lamia 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Lamia take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 14 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Lamia (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Atromitos are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamia, 1 for Atromitos and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamia — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Atromitos — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 38% versus Atromitos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 42% | Atromitos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.09 xG and Atromitos 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.791 / defence 1.342 | Atromitos attack 0.829 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.059. Lamia's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Lamia games / 43 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 30% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 34%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Atromitos 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 40% | Atromitos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 30% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Lamia 1.09 / Atromitos 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.791 / def 1.342 | Atromitos attack 0.829 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Atromitos xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Atromitos kick off?
Lamia vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Lamia 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Lamia vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Atromitos part of?
Lamia vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 30% chance of winning, Atromitos a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lamia and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 3 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.83x) against Lamia's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
36%
2.77
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.27
1.18
Atromitos xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lamia and 1.18 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamia's recent record stands at 8W 16D 26L from 50 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 23L across 50 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Lamia against 1.10 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 3W 8D 13L from 24 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.02 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 16D 26L in their last 50 games (0.80 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Atromitos away?
Lamia's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.71 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, Atromitos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 46% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 46% of games; Atromitos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 42% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 46% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Atromitos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Atromitos finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.09 xG and Atromitos 1.18 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.34 against Atromitos attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 30% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 42%, Atromitos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.80 PPG, Atromitos 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.