Kallithea 2-4 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kallithea vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kallithea and Levadiakos meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kallithea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kallithea at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Kallithea, 0.90 for Levadiakos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kallithea have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Levadiakos in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kallithea, 0 for Levadiakos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Kallithea — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kallithea 62% and Levadiakos 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 54% | Levadiakos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.22 xG and Levadiakos 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.755 / defence 1.339 | Levadiakos attack 0.920 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.254. Kallithea's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Kallithea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Kallithea games / 13 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 29% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 44%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kallithea 67% | Levadiakos 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 29% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Kallithea 1.22 / Levadiakos 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.755 / def 1.339 | Levadiakos attack 0.920 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Levadiakos xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kallithea vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Kallithea 2 - 4 Levadiakos.
Where is Kallithea vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Levadiakos part of?
Kallithea vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 29% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kallithea and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): Kallithea 0W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Kallithea and Levadiakos in?
Kallithea (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kallithea's attack at 0.76x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.92x) against Kallithea's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.82
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.76
1.55
Levadiakos xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
15.93
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.55 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kallithea's recent record stands at 0W 8D 5L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kallithea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 5L across 13 games — 0.77 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.62 PPG for Kallithea against 0.77 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kallithea have managed 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kallithea are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.08 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kallithea have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 8D 5L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 1W 7D 5L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Levadiakos away?
Kallithea's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.50 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 0-3 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kallithea have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kallithea
1
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Levadiakos?
From 4 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 0, Levadiakos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Levadiakos 4-1 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Kallithea, 83% for Levadiakos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kallithea and 67% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kallithea have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kallithea's games and 83% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kallithea vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kallithea's matches and 67% of Levadiakos's.
Do Kallithea and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kallithea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Kallithea 2-4 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.22 xG and Levadiakos 1.55 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Levadiakos outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.76 / defence 1.34 against Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 29% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 44%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 54%, Levadiakos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.62 PPG, Levadiakos 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.