Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Iraklis 1908 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Kalamata travel to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to take on Iraklis 1908. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Iraklis 1908 stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Iraklis 1908 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kalamata have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kalamata — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Iraklis 1908 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kalamata in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Iraklis 1908 have won 0, Kalamata 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Iraklis 1908 in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kalamata in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Iraklis 1908 60% and Kalamata 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Iraklis 1908 40% | Kalamata 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.77 xG and Kalamata 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.858 / defence 1.342 | Kalamata attack 0.942 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.034. Kalamata bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Iraklis 1908's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Iraklis 1908 games / 10 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 45% | Draw 29% | Kalamata 26%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Kalamata 3.85. Iraklis 1908 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Iraklis 1908 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalamata (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Iraklis 1908 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Iraklis 1908 60% | Kalamata 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 45% | Draw 29% | Kalamata 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.77 / Kalamata 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.858 / def 1.342 | Kalamata attack 0.942 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Iraklis 1908 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Kalamata xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 45% chance of winning, Kalamata a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Iraklis 1908 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata?
Record (1 meetings): Iraklis 1908 0W | Draws 1 | Kalamata 0W.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Kalamata (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Iraklis 1908's attack at 0.86x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Iraklis 1908's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Iraklis 1908 Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.47
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
3.07
1.31
Kalamata xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
4%
22.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.31 for Kalamata, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Iraklis 1908 come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 4D 5L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Iraklis 1908 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalamata sit at 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalamata carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Iraklis 1908 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Iraklis 1908's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalamata have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.50 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Iraklis 1908 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Kalamata in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Blended
Kalamata
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Iraklis 1908 at home or Kalamata away?
Kalamata's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Iraklis 1908 at home: 0.80 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Iraklis 1908
1
Draws
0
Kalamata
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata?
From 1 meetings on record, Iraklis 1908 have won 0, Kalamata have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2026, when Kalamata 1-1 Iraklis 1908.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Iraklis 1908 60%, Kalamata 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Iraklis 1908) and 40% (Kalamata).
On the defensive side: Kalamata in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play Kalamata?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Iraklis 1908's games and 60% of Kalamata's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 40% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and Kalamata tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.