Ionikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ionikos take on Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias plays host to Ionikos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ionikos have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ionikos have posted 0W 5D 5L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ionikos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 51% versus Aris Thessalonikis 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 45% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.91 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.786 / defence 1.251 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.820 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.035. Ionikos's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Ionikos games / 46 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 27% | Draw 39% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 27% | Draw 39% | Aris Thessalonikis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Ionikos 0.91 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.786 / def 1.251 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.820 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Ionikos 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 27% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (3 meetings): Ionikos 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ionikos's attack at 0.79x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.82x) against Ionikos's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.76
39%
2.58
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.97
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.76
27%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.06 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ionikos's recent record stands at 14W 14D 25L from 53 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 16L across 53 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ionikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 6W 10D 10L from 26 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.25 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 28%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 14W 14D 25L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 11D 16L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.08 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Ionikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ionikos
0
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 4 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Ionikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 58%, Aris Thessalonikis 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ionikos) and 31% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Ionikos have failed to score in 35% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ionikos's recent matches and 27% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ionikos's recent games and 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ionikos defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.91 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.06 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 27% | Draw 39% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 45%, Aris Thessalonikis 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Ionikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ionikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.