Atromitos 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Volos NFC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Atromitos against 0.90 for Volos NFC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atromitos lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 62% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 49% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.56 xG and Volos NFC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.270 / defence 1.091 | Volos NFC attack 0.830 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.212. Atromitos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Atromitos games / 32 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 23%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Volos NFC 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 70% | Volos NFC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Atromitos 1.56 / Volos NFC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.270 / def 1.091 | Volos NFC attack 0.830 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Volos NFC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Atromitos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Atromitos 1 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Atromitos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Volos NFC part of?
Atromitos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 44% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Atromitos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
Record (6 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 3 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Volos NFC in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.83x) against Atromitos's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.08
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.65
1.10
Volos NFC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.10 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 39 games, going 9W 15D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 0.95 PPG from 39 outings (9W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Atromitos against 0.95 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 6W 7D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.03 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 9W 15D 15L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Volos NFC away?
Atromitos's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.32 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atromitos
3
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 63%, Volos NFC 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atromitos) and 42% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 32% of games; Volos NFC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Atromitos's recent matches and 37% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atromitos's recent games and 42% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.56 xG and Volos NFC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.27 / defence 1.09 against Volos NFC attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 44% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 23%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 49%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.08 PPG, Volos NFC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.