Atromitos 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Levadiakos travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 February 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Atromitos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Atromitos, 1 for Levadiakos and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus Levadiakos 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 27% | Levadiakos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.58 xG and Levadiakos 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.013 / defence 0.844 | Levadiakos attack 0.744 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.024. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Atromitos games / 22 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 57% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 12%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.75 | Draw 3.12 | Levadiakos 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (57%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 57% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Atromitos 1.58 / Levadiakos 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.013 / def 0.844 | Levadiakos attack 0.744 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Levadiakos xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Atromitos 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Atromitos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Levadiakos part of?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 57% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 12% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Atromitos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (1.01) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
57%
1.76
32%
3.17
12%
8.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.22
0.64
Levadiakos xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
8.55
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
41.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.64 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 6W 8D 8L from 22 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 13L across 22 games — 0.59 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atromitos by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 4W 5D 1L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 3D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.55 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 2W 7D 13L in their last 22 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Levadiakos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.70 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atromitos
2
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Levadiakos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, Levadiakos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Atromitos and 50% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 30% of games; Levadiakos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Atromitos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.58 xG and Levadiakos 0.64 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Levadiakos attack 0.74 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 57% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 12%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 27%, Levadiakos 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Levadiakos's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.