Atromitos 0-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees AEK Athens FC travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 5W 3D 1L from 9 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AEK Athens FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atromitos, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus AEK Athens FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | AEK Athens FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.04 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.028 / defence 1.351 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.050 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.135. Data: 16 Atromitos games / 17 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | AEK Athens FC 1.96. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 57% | AEK Athens FC 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Atromitos 1.04 / AEK Athens FC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.028 / def 1.351 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.050 / def 1.026 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.61
AEK Athens FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Atromitos 0 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 25% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atromitos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC?
Record (1 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are Atromitos and AEK Athens FC in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (1.03) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
25%
4.07
25%
4.02
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.65
1.61
AEK Athens FC xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
5%
20.39
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Atromitos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.61 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Atromitos have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 2W 4D 10L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 9W 3D 4L from 16 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atromitos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 2D 0L from 7 away games — 2.43 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.88 PPG overall record — AEK Athens FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.00 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Atromitos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Atromitos 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 57%, AEK Athens FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Atromitos) and 57% (AEK Athens FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 43%; Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atromitos's games and 57% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Atromitos's matches and 57% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Atromitos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Atromitos 0-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.04 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.03 / defence 1.35 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 25% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 51%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 56%, AEK Athens FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.