Asteras Tripolis 0-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 19 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Asteras Tripolis. A 1.00 PPG lead over PAOK (1.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, PAOK in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.07 xG and PAOK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | PAOK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 0.847. Data: 1 Asteras Tripolis games / 1 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 32% | PAOK 28%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | PAOK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 0.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 32% | PAOK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.07 / PAOK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | PAOK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.958 / away 0.847 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.83
PAOK xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 41% chance of winning, PAOK a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. PAOK (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.97x the league average against PAOK's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (0.85x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.17
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.90
0.83
PAOK xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.83 for PAOK, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of PAOK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; PAOK in 0%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Asteras Tripolis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, PAOK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, PAOK have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 0% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 0% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and PAOK tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, PAOK in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.07 xG and PAOK 0.83 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against PAOK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 32% | PAOK 28%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 0%, PAOK 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with PAOK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Asteras Tripolis shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.