Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Levadiakos (all games): 0W 3D 2L across their last 5 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%).

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Asteras Tripolis's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 1 for Levadiakos and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Levadiakos — a Levadiakos win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 60% versus Levadiakos 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 20% | Levadiakos 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.32 xG and Levadiakos 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.895 / defence 1.128 | Levadiakos attack 0.870 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.225. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 31 games and Levadiakos's last 5.

Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.81 | Draw 2.90 | Levadiakos 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 60% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 40% (last 5 games).

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