Aris Thessalonikis 4-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 8 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Volos NFC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Volos NFC trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 36% versus Volos NFC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.50 xG and Volos NFC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.328 / defence 0.920 | Volos NFC attack 0.985 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 47% | Draw 34% | Volos NFC 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Volos NFC 5.26. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Volos NFC 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 47% | Draw 34% | Volos NFC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.50 / Volos NFC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.328 / def 0.920 | Volos NFC attack 0.985 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Volos NFC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 4 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 47% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Record (1 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.33) and Volos NFC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
47%
2.11
34%
2.98
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.40
0.91
Volos NFC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
23.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.91 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 31W 12D 23L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Volos NFC's form line: 21W 17D 28L from 66 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.59 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.91 PPG from 32 outings (18W 7D 7L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 9W 12D 11L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.21 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 31W 12D 23L in their last 66 games (1.59 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.91 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 38%, Volos NFC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 53% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Volos NFC in 34%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 34% of games; Volos NFC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 53% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 4-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.50 xG and Volos NFC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against Volos NFC attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 47% | Draw 34% | Volos NFC 19%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 48%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 PPG, Volos NFC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.