Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 December 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Aris Thessalonikis's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aris Thessalonikis lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Panetolikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 32% versus Panetolikos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Panetolikos 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 xG and Panetolikos 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.258 / defence 0.898 | Panetolikos attack 1.187 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.069. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Aris Thessalonikis games / 40 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Panetolikos 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Panetolikos 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 / Panetolikos 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.258 / def 0.898 | Panetolikos attack 1.187 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Panetolikos xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 40% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Record (3 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (1.19x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
40%
2.52
34%
2.96
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.56
1.14
Panetolikos xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.14 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 11D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.13 PPG from 47 outings (14W 11D 22L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.02 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panetolikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.87 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Panetolikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 30%, Panetolikos 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 56% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 44% of games; Panetolikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 61% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 56% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panetolikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 xG and Panetolikos 1.14 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.26 / defence 0.90 against Panetolikos attack 1.19 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 26%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 38%, Panetolikos 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.