Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.824 / defence 0.916 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.122 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.204. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.712 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Aris Thessalonikis games / 39 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.824 / def 0.916 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.122 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (9 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.82) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.12x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.87
29%
3.42
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.10
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.1 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.24 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 20W 12D 13L from 45 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 34W 7D 4L across 45 games — 2.42 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 13W 6D 3L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 15W 3D 4L across 22 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.96 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 7D 4L in their last 45 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.05 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Olympiakos Piraeus 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Aris Thessalonikis and 36% for Olympiakos Piraeus.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 59%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.12 / defence 0.71, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 36%, Olympiakos Piraeus 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.