Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.056 / defence 0.960 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.204 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.297. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 30 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 21% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 80% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 21% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.056 / def 0.960 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.204 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.06) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.20x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.68
32%
3.16
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.46
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.97
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.50 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 17W 9D 14L from 40 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 26W 7D 7L across 40 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 9W 5D 5L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 11W 4D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.15 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 7D 7L in their last 40 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.68 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 63%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 37%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.20 / defence 0.78, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 21% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 42%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.