Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Play-off Group - 2 sees OFI travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
OFI in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 40% | OFI 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.23 xG and OFI 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.954 / defence 0.750 | OFI attack 1.087 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.093. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 29% | OFI 27%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | OFI 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 2 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 29% | OFI 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.23 / OFI 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.954 / def 0.750 | OFI attack 1.087 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.89
OFI xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 OFI.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Conference League Play-off Group - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 44% chance of winning, OFI a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Record (3 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 0 | OFI 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.95x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.42
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.12
0.89
OFI xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.89 for OFI, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 28W 13D 19L from 60 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 23L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 5W 11D 13L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.23 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 28W 13D 19L in their last 60 games (1.62 PPG), while OFI have gone 17W 20D 23L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or OFI away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.79 PPG; OFI away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, OFI in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 52%, OFI 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 59% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; OFI in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 52% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 59% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and OFI tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, OFI in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Conference League Play-off Group - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.23 xG and OFI 0.89 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. OFI landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against OFI attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 29% | OFI 27%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 40%, OFI 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.