Aris Thessalonikis 2-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for Lamia and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Lamia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lamia trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Lamia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Lamia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.75 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.939 / defence 0.810 | Lamia attack 0.724 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.129. Data: 40 Aris Thessalonikis games / 40 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 63% | Draw 25% | Lamia 13%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Lamia 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 63% | Draw 25% | Lamia 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.75 / Lamia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.939 / def 0.810 | Lamia attack 0.724 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lamia xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 63% chance of winning, Lamia a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Record (5 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 1 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Lamia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
63%
1.59
25%
4.07
13%
7.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.41
0.66
Lamia xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
7.85
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
2%
45.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.66 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 7D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.96 PPG from 47 outings (9W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 16W 2D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (2W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.81 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 7D 19L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Lamia have gone 9W 18D 20L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Lamia away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.08 PPG; Lamia away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lamia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 54%, Lamia 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 42% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lamia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 38% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 42% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamia in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 15, as Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.75 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lamia outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Lamia attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 63% | Draw 25% | Lamia 13%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 53%, Lamia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.