Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Aris Thessalonikis welcome Kifisia to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kifisia — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Kifisia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Kifisia in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aris Thessalonikis 50% and Kifisia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Kifisia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.842 / defence 0.799 | Kifisia attack 0.861 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Aris Thessalonikis games / 20 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Kifisia 5.26. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Kifisia 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 / Kifisia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.842 / def 0.799 | Kifisia attack 0.861 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Kifisia xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 52% chance of winning, Kifisia a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia?
Record (3 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 1 | Kifisia 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Kifisia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.84) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.51
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.25
0.79
Kifisia xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.79 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 9D 6L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kifisia's form line: 4W 8D 8L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.20 PPG, Kifisia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (1W 7D 1L).
On the road, Kifisia have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Kifisia away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.11 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kifisia in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia?
From 4 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Kifisia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aris Thessalonikis at 56%, Kifisia at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 67% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 78% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 67% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.84 / defence 0.80 against Kifisia attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 47/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 19%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 30%, Kifisia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kifisia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.