Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Atromitos at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 23 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Aris Thessalonikis have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 27% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 27% | Atromitos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.15 xG and Atromitos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.754 / defence 0.986 | Atromitos attack 0.682 / defence 1.592. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.092. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.592 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Aris Thessalonikis games / 22 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 31% | Atromitos 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Atromitos 4.35. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 31% | Atromitos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.15 / Atromitos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.754 / def 0.986 | Atromitos attack 0.682 / def 1.592 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Atromitos xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 46% chance of winning, Atromitos a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.23
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.89
0.73
Atromitos xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.73 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 13L across 22 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 0W 2D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.05 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Atromitos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.80 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Atromitos in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, Atromitos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS, Atromitos 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 60% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; Atromitos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 60% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 3-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.15 xG and Atromitos 0.73 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Atromitos attack 0.68 / defence 1.59, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 31% | Atromitos 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 27%, Atromitos 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.