Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Apollon Smirnis take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Apollon Smirnis welcome Lamia to Stadio Georgios Kamaras in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 6). Kick-off is Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Apollon Smirnis — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have recorded 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Lamia have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Apollon Smirnis at 1.00 PPG versus Lamia's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Apollon Smirnis's 10% BTTS rate and Lamia's 30% (from Apollon Smirnis's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Apollon Smirnis, 0 for Lamia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Feb 2022, ended Apollon Smirnis 2–1 Lamia — a Apollon Smirnis win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Apollon Smirnis in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 29% versus Lamia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 42% | Lamia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.63 xG and Lamia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.545 / defence 1.273 | Lamia attack 0.598 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.545 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Lamia's attack rating of 0.598 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Data: built from Apollon Smirnis's last 26 games and Lamia's last 26.
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 26% | Draw 38% | Lamia 36%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 3.83 | Draw 2.65 | Lamia 2.76. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS Yes probability 26% | Total xG 1.43. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.43 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.63 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 83% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Apollon Smirnis's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Apollon Smirnis 10% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 26% | Draw 38% | Lamia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% (Under 83%) | BTTS Yes 26% (No 74%) | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.63 / Lamia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.545 / def 1.273 | Lamia attack 0.598 / def 1.173 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Lamia xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 26% chance of winning, Lamia a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (74%).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (83%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.63. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Apollon Smirnis's last 26 games and Lamia's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.83
38%
2.65
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.43
0.80
Lamia xG
3.83
26%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.87
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.9 | 19.1 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.5%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.80 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 4W 8D 19L from 31 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 19L across 31 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Apollon Smirnis on 0.65 PPG, Lamia on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 2W 7D 6L from their last 15 home games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.45 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.77 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
Apollon Smirnis (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 4W 8D 19L in their last 31 games (0.65 PPG), while Lamia have gone 6W 6D 19L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.87 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 7 May 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Apollon Smirnis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Apollon Smirnis
2
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Lamia?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, Lamia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2022: Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Lamia?
Apollon Smirnis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Apollon Smirnis 20% BTTS, Lamia 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Apollon Smirnis and 33% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Lamia in 33%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 67% of games; Lamia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Apollon Smirnis and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 27% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Apollon Smirnis and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 60% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Apollon Smirnis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Relegation Round - 6, as Apollon Smirnis and Lamia drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.63 xG and Lamia 0.80 xG, a combined 1.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.55 / defence 1.27 against Lamia attack 0.60 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 26% | Draw 38% | Lamia 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 42% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 42%, Lamia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Apollon Smirnis 0.65 PPG, Lamia 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.