Apollon Smirnis 0-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 44% as Apollon Smirnis take on Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to face Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Apollon Smirnis (all games): 0W 2D 3L across 5 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Apollon Smirnis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 0.40 PPG across 5 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Apollon Smirnis, 0.40 for Asteras Tripolis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Apollon Smirnis — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Apollon Smirnis 40% | Asteras Tripolis 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Apollon Smirnis 60% | Asteras Tripolis 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.72 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.762 / defence 1.261 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.631 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.025. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Apollon Smirnis games / 5 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 44% | Asteras Tripolis 31%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 4.00 | Draw 2.27 | Asteras Tripolis 3.23. The draw (44%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 44% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.53 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 40% | Asteras Tripolis 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 44% | Asteras Tripolis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 32% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.72 / Asteras Tripolis 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.762 / def 1.261 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.631 / def 1.005 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Draw (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Asteras Tripolis xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 25% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance, and a 44% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Apollon Smirnis's attack at 0.76x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.63x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.95
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.53
0.81
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.95
25%
Home win
2.29
44%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 17.6 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.81 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Apollon Smirnis have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.40 PPG for Apollon Smirnis against 0.40 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis in 20%.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Asteras Tripolis in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Have Apollon Smirnis or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Asteras Tripolis 2-2 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Apollon Smirnis) and 20% (Asteras Tripolis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Apollon Smirnis) and 20% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 40%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 60% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 20% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 20% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Apollon Smirnis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Apollon Smirnis 0-1 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.72 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.81 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.63 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 44% | Asteras Tripolis 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 44%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 60%, Asteras Tripolis 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Apollon Smirnis 0.40 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Apollon Smirnis conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.