Werder Bremen 1-4 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host RB Leipzig at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RB Leipzig are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0, RB Leipzig 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2020, ended 0–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 63% versus RB Leipzig 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 37% | RB Leipzig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.78 xG and RB Leipzig 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.767 / defence 1.215 | RB Leipzig attack 1.115 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.321. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Werder Bremen games / 27 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 15% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 61%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 1.64. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 70% | RB Leipzig 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 15% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG Werder Bremen 0.78 / RB Leipzig 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.767 / def 1.215 | RB Leipzig attack 1.115 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.79
RB Leipzig xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Werder Bremen 1 - 4 RB Leipzig.
Where is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig part of?
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 15% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.77) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.2%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
15%
6.59
24%
4.11
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.57
1.79
RB Leipzig xG
6.59
15%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
17%
5.99
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
3%
39.48
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.79 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 7W 9D 11L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 17W 6D 4L from 27 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 7W 4D 2L from 13 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.78 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.00 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2021, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
7
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 69%, RB Leipzig 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Werder Bremen) and 46% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 38% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 46% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Werder Bremen 1-4 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.78 xG and RB Leipzig 1.79 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against RB Leipzig attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 15% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 61%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 37%, RB Leipzig 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.