Werder Bremen 5-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's home record at wohninvest WESERSTADION: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Werder Bremen 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2021, ended 2–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 66% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 66% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.23 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.945 / defence 1.326 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.880 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.392. Data: 7 Werder Bremen games / 41 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.17. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Werder Bremen 1.23 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.945 / def 1.326 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.880 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Werder Bremen 5 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 29% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.94x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
29%
3.50
25%
3.97
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.85
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
6%
17.73
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.62 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 20W 12D 9L from 41 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 14L across 41 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.76 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 7D 5L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 4W 8D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.56 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 20W 12D 9L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.55 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 60%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 50% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Werder Bremen's games and 65% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.23 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 66%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.76 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.