VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 40%, yet in-form VfB Stuttgart provide a compelling counter-argument — this VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Volkswagen Arena to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volkswagen Arena, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. VfB Stuttgart's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 2 for VfB Stuttgart and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 54% and VfB Stuttgart 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 58% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.49 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.917 / defence 0.958 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.013 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.326. Data: 57 VfL Wolfsburg games / 57 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 31%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | VfB Stuttgart 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 80% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.49 / VfB Stuttgart 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.917 / def 0.958 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.013 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
VfB Stuttgart xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 40% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 2W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.92x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.44
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.78
1.29
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.29 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 17D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.47 PPG from 57 outings (24W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.30 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 10W 11D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.75 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 24W 12D 21L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.46 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 64%, VfB Stuttgart at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for VfL Wolfsburg and 75% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 68% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.49 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.29 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 31%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.