VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees SC Freiburg travel to Volkswagen Arena to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg at Volkswagen Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at Volkswagen Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, SC Freiburg 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 0–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 51% versus SC Freiburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 64% | SC Freiburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 xG and SC Freiburg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.015 / defence 0.905 | SC Freiburg attack 0.785 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.416. Data: 47 VfL Wolfsburg games / 47 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 20%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | SC Freiburg 5.00. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 / SC Freiburg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.015 / def 0.905 | SC Freiburg attack 0.785 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SC Freiburg xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 52% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 3W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 1.01x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.55
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.00
SC Freiburg xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
4%
27.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.00 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg's recent record stands at 18W 11D 18L from 47 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 14L across 47 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.38 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfL Wolfsburg have managed 10W 8D 5L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 18W 11D 18L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 22W 11D 14L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.65 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.26 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 61%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for VfL Wolfsburg and 61% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 35%; SC Freiburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 xG and SC Freiburg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against SC Freiburg attack 0.79 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 20%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 64%, SC Freiburg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.38 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.