VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host FC Augsburg at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Volkswagen Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Augsburg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 2 for FC Augsburg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 54% versus FC Augsburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 58% | FC Augsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG and FC Augsburg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.936 / defence 1.051 | FC Augsburg attack 1.115 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.357. Data: 59 VfL Wolfsburg games / 59 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 33% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 40%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 80% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 33% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 / FC Augsburg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.936 / def 1.051 | FC Augsburg attack 1.115 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.59
FC Augsburg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 33% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.94) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.71
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.03
1.59
FC Augsburg xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.59 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 17D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (17W 15D 27L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.25 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 10W 11D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (6W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.39 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.41 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 66%, FC Augsburg at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for VfL Wolfsburg and 62% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 66% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 62% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG and FC Augsburg 1.59 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against FC Augsburg attack 1.11 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 33% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 40%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.