VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfL Wolfsburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to Volkswagen Arena to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2W 3D 5L at Volkswagen Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 1.30 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Borussia Dortmund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Borussia Dortmund, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 70% and Borussia Dortmund 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 61% | Borussia Dortmund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.015 / defence 1.258 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.226 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 VfL Wolfsburg games / 54 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 21% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 57%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Dortmund 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 80% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 21% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 / Borussia Dortmund 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.015 / def 1.258 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.226 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Borussia Dortmund xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 21% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (9 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 7W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.23x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
21%
4.71
22%
4.50
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.61
2.25
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.71
21%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
11%
9.52
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
2%
44.78
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 2.25 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 14D 24L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.89 PPG from 54 outings (30W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 5W 10D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.48 points per game from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.07 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 30W 12D 12L in their last 54 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.93 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.48 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for VfL Wolfsburg, 67% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for VfL Wolfsburg and 59% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.25 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.26 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 21% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 57%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 61%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.