VfL Bochum 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as VfL Bochum take on SC Freiburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Vonovia Ruhrstadion to face VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Bochum (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vonovia Ruhrstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Bochum are significantly better at Vonovia Ruhrstadion than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, SC Freiburg are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 25% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 42% | SC Freiburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.09 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.846 / defence 0.871 | SC Freiburg attack 1.063 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.183. SC Freiburg's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 VfL Bochum games / 46 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 32% | Draw 36% | SC Freiburg 32%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | SC Freiburg 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 20% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 32% | Draw 36% | SC Freiburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG VfL Bochum 1.09 / SC Freiburg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.846 / def 0.871 | SC Freiburg attack 1.063 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SC Freiburg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
VfL Bochum 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 32% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.85) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (1.06x) against VfL Bochum's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
36%
2.81
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.19
1.09
SC Freiburg xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.09 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 2L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Bochum are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.50 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Bochum have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 2.00 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 2.00 PPG.
Have VfL Bochum or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Bochum have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
0
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 20%, SC Freiburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (VfL Bochum) and 60% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 60% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 60% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.09 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VfL Bochum beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against SC Freiburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.77, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 32% | Draw 36% | SC Freiburg 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual VfL Bochum win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 42%, SC Freiburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.