VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.20 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Werder Bremen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 67% and Werder Bremen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 54% | Werder Bremen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.42 xG and Werder Bremen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.832 / defence 0.981 | Werder Bremen attack 0.915 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.927 / away 1.335. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.510 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 VfB Stuttgart games / 18 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 16%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Werder Bremen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.42 / Werder Bremen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.832 / def 0.981 | Werder Bremen attack 0.915 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.927 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Werder Bremen xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 63% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.83) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.92x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.76
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.62
1.20
Werder Bremen xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
9%
11.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
1%
70.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.20 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 10W 19D 23L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen's form line: 25W 12D 15L from 52 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Werder Bremen are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 13W 5D 7L from 25 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.81 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 19D 23L in their last 52 games (0.94 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.24 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for VfB Stuttgart, 72% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 72% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 80% of Werder Bremen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat VfB Stuttgart 0-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.42 xG and Werder Bremen 1.20 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Werder Bremen attack 0.92 / defence 1.51, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 16%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 54%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.