VfB Stuttgart 2-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Bochum make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward VfB Stuttgart. A 1.10 PPG lead over VfL Bochum (1.30 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 70% of VfL Bochum's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for VfL Bochum and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended VfB Stuttgart 0–1 VfL Bochum — a VfL Bochum win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 61% and VfL Bochum 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 75% | VfL Bochum 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 3.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.294 / defence 1.101 | VfL Bochum attack 0.944 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.463. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.294 — their 3.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 1.536 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfB Stuttgart's projected output up. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 44 games and VfL Bochum's last 44.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 17% | VfL Bochum 14%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.46 | Draw 5.76 | VfL Bochum 7.07. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (68%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (3.15 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 17% | VfL Bochum 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% (Under 16%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 3.15 / VfL Bochum 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.294 / def 1.101 | VfL Bochum attack 0.944 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.15
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.52
VfL Bochum xG
76%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 68% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.15. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.94x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 44 games and VfL Bochum's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 4-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
68%
1.46
17%
5.76
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
4 – 1
5.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.15
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.67
1.52
VfL Bochum xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
50%
Over 4.5
2.00
50%
Under 4.5
2.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
4%
23.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
1%
165.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 3.15 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.52 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 4.67.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 26W 8D 10L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 8W 13D 23L from 44 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.27 PPG from their last 22 home games (15W 5D 2L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 4D 15L from their last 22 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.23 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 68%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 8D 10L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 8W 13D 23L in their last 44 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Bochum away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.27 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 5-0 VfL Bochum on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: VfL Bochum 0-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for VfB Stuttgart, 64% for VfL Bochum — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for VfB Stuttgart and 73% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 64% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 73% of VfL Bochum's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 82% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Bochum 2-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 3.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.52 xG, a combined 4.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.29 / defence 1.10 against VfL Bochum attack 0.94 / defence 1.54, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 17% | VfL Bochum 14%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 75%, VfL Bochum 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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