VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 2D 1L at MHPArena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 3 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | SC Freiburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG and SC Freiburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.908 / defence 0.968 | SC Freiburg attack 0.916 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.470. Data: 53 VfB Stuttgart games / 53 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 26%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 3.85. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.79 / SC Freiburg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.908 / def 0.968 | SC Freiburg attack 0.916 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.30
SC Freiburg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 47% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 3W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 6W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.91x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.92x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.79
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.10
1.30
SC Freiburg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
4%
22.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.30 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 11D 17L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.55 PPG from 53 outings (23W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.55 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 13W 4D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.51 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 25W 11D 17L in their last 53 games (1.62 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 23W 13D 17L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.65 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 62%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for VfB Stuttgart and 58% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%; SC Freiburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 58% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out SC Freiburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SC Freiburg 1-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG and SC Freiburg 1.30 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against SC Freiburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 26%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, SC Freiburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.62 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.