VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Hertha BSC travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1W 5D 3L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, VfB Stuttgart have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Hertha BSC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2020, ended 2–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hertha BSC trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 75% and Hertha BSC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 65% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.41 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.951 / defence 1.150 | Hertha BSC attack 0.704 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.447. Data: 20 VfB Stuttgart games / 20 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 78% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.41 / Hertha BSC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.951 / def 1.150 | Hertha BSC attack 0.704 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 42% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.70
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.58
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.17 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 6W 7D 7L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 11L across 20 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 1W 5D 3L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.25 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Hertha BSC away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 0.89 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 78%, Hertha BSC at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (VfB Stuttgart) and 56% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 33%; Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 56% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 56% of Hertha BSC's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.41 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Hertha BSC attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 65%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.