VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Mercedes-Benz-Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 0.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.845 / defence 1.288 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.839 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.349. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 VfB Stuttgart games / 58 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.79 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.845 / def 1.288 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.839 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 44% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.99
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.24
1.46
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
5%
19.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.46 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 16W 16D 26L from 58 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 22L across 58 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 8W 9D 12L from 29 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 7W 9D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.66 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 71%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.14 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 72%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for VfB Stuttgart and 72% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.46 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.84 / defence 1.29 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 57%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.