Union Berlin 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.10 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 3 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus VfL Wolfsburg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | VfL Wolfsburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 0.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.705 / defence 0.854 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.068 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.435. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Union Berlin games / 61 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 26% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.22. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union Berlin 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 26% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Union Berlin 0.93 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.705 / def 0.854 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.068 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.31
VfL Wolfsburg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 26% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (7 meetings): Union Berlin 3W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.70) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
26%
3.83
29%
3.44
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.24
1.31
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.31 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 13D 31L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.23 PPG from 61 outings (20W 15D 26L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.05 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 11W 7D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (11W 5D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 67%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 17W 13D 31L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 20W 15D 26L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.33 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 53%, VfL Wolfsburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 57% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 33% of games; VfL Wolfsburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Union Berlin's games and 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 57% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.31 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.70 / defence 0.85 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 26% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, VfL Wolfsburg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.05 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.