Union Berlin 3-2 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Union Berlin's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Union Berlin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 58% versus VfL Bochum 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | VfL Bochum 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.66 xG and VfL Bochum 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.891 / defence 0.797 | VfL Bochum attack 0.862 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.414. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Union Berlin games / 33 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 52% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 21%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Bochum 4.76. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | VfL Bochum 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 52% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 1.66 / VfL Bochum 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.891 / def 0.797 | VfL Bochum attack 0.862 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.97
VfL Bochum xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Union Berlin 3 - 2 VfL Bochum.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 52% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.89) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.86x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.63
0.97
VfL Bochum xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
25.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.97 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 15W 9D 9L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 12W 6D 15L from 33 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.27 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.00 PPG from 16 outings (9W 5D 2L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 10L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.09 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfL Bochum
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 games (1.64 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 12W 6D 15L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Bochum away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 50%, VfL Bochum 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Union Berlin) and 56% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 50% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Union Berlin's recent games and 56% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out VfL Bochum 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Bochum 3-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.66 xG and VfL Bochum 0.97 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Bochum outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against VfL Bochum attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 52% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 21%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, VfL Bochum 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.64 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.