Union Berlin 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SC Freiburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 67% and SC Freiburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | SC Freiburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.969 / defence 0.887 | SC Freiburg attack 1.338 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.365. SC Freiburg's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SC Freiburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Union Berlin games / 49 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 43%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | SC Freiburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Union Berlin 1.28 / SC Freiburg 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.969 / def 0.887 | SC Freiburg attack 1.338 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.62
SC Freiburg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg part of?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 28% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union Berlin and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.97x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (1.34x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.55
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.62
SC Freiburg xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.80
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.62 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 18W 19D 12L from 49 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 17L across 49 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.43 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 13W 10D 2L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.59 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 19D 12L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SC Freiburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.96 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 68%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 64% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Union Berlin's games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union Berlin's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Union Berlin and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.62 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against SC Freiburg attack 1.34 / defence 0.74, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 28% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 43%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, SC Freiburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.49 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.