Union Berlin 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Union Berlin have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union Berlin have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 50% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.31 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.877 / defence 1.090 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.930 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.512. Data: 40 Union Berlin games / 40 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 32% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 32% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Berlin 1.31 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.877 / def 1.090 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.930 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin 3 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 32% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (8 meetings): Union Berlin 5W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.88x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
32%
3.11
26%
3.89
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.84
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.53 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 12W 12D 16L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 18L across 40 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.20 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.50 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.21 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 63%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union Berlin) and 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Union Berlin's games and 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Union Berlin's matches and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.31 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 32% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.20 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.