Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Bayern München travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2020, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München away from home this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayern München in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Bayern München trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 80% and Bayern München 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 70% | Bayern München 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.08 xG and Bayern München 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.314 / defence 1.200 | Bayern München attack 1.120 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.605. Union Berlin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Union Berlin games / 10 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 37% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Bayern München 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 79%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | Bayern München 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2020, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 37% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 79% | xG Union Berlin 2.08 / Bayern München 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.314 / def 1.200 | Bayern München attack 1.120 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.605 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Bayern München xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 12 December 2020 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 37% chance of winning, Bayern München a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.3%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
37%
2.74
24%
4.18
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
4.23
2.16
Bayern München xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.83
Clean Sheet
12%
8.64
13%
7.99
Win to Nil
4%
23.62
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.16 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 4W 4D 2L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Bayern München in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.60 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 60%, Bayern München at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Union Berlin and 100% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union Berlin's games and 100% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Union Berlin's matches and 100% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Bayern München share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Bayern München finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.08 xG and Bayern München 2.16 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bayern München landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.31 / defence 1.20 against Bayern München attack 1.12 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 37% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 39%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 70%, Bayern München 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.